Rafael Nadal v Fabio Fognini
Nadal leads the H2H 7-3 but the Italian has had more than some success against the Spaniard – especially on American hard courts. Fognini beat Nadal here back in 2014 and also took down the 14 time Grand Slam champion at the US Open in 2015. He will have to serve well against Rafa and go for his shots if he is to cause another upset. The Wolf is concerned that he will not be able to maintain the required level for long enough. Rafa destroyed a erratic Jack Sock and the Italian has been known to have similar tendencies. Nadal has been playing well all season long and is hungry for titles. He will get another chance following a comfortable semi final win.
Best Bet: Nadal -4.5 (1.73)
Value: 1st Set Score After 2 Games Nadal 2-0 (3.20)